Last week, inspite of a busily “scheduled” weekend, I managed to begin and finish the novel “The Unbearable Lightness of Being,” a philosophically tilted piece of literature written by the Czech writer Kundera. In the story, the main character Tomas (a womanizer who was finally tied down by a woman named Teresa) ponders how 6 fortuities brought about his meeting with Teresa.
And then I think about all the fortuities in my life, especially the more recent ones.
A true fortuity: last year I travelled solo to Austria on a pilgrimage for classical music and sound of music and a verification of the beauty of the scene of a little lakeside town as captured on my desk calendar. There I befriended a couple spanish/german speaking men (one is a biology teacher and the other is a Spanish teacher in a university in Linz) and a dog, and stayed with them for a night and then to Czech Republic. This year, a couple weeks ago, I went with Lynette to Costa Rica, where, on the first night, I met two Austrian college students, who happened to go to the university which the man I met in Austria teaches — and they happened to know exactly that man I met in the small lakeside town in Austria last year — and I happened to still have the business card of the Austria man I met last year in my wallet and showed it to them.
Is this a true fortuity? I think so. It took 3 countries (Austria, Costa Rica, USA), in 3 different continents, thousands miles apart, more than 1 year later, to find a 2nd degree of connection with Javier (the Spanish teacher in Austria). Is this fortuity meaningful? Perhaps not.
While that above example is a fortuity, it is actually normally tricky to identify whether some encounter is truly fortuitous, as you’ll see…read on.)
So then I ponder about my latest fortuitous encounter:
I signed up to a piano meet up group (which meets in a church) because I want to befriend some African Americans who play jazz and get tips from them. I went there that Friday evening. Arrived at the designated church, but found that all 5 entrances were locked. Now, I am not a really social person, and at that point, I was not feeling very determined about going into a church to discuss and perform piano in front of a bunch of black people, so — I was about to give up and leave — only that I suddenly remembered that, the night before I had copied the main contact’s phone number onto my map (normally I am not this organized…for some reasons, that night, at that second that this possibility crossed my mind, I decided to grab a pencil and jog down the number).
Do you know, that a split second decision could be the break between a stagnant day-to-day life versus an amazing and eye-opening experience? (It has OFTEN been this case in my life of almost 27 years)
So I called the organizer of the piano group, and viola, they were meeting upstairs. I could already hear the Chopin wafting from above. The church is a very, very old church. And surprisingly, inside the compound is like a castle. There is an indoor basketball court!
Cut to the crux of the story: in the meeting, indeed there were a lot of African Americans. And a few white people. I was the only Asian. It was an amazing experience, because never had I actually participated in these informal sort of piano recitals, among a very eclectic group of pianists. All the African American piansts blew me away — and they were not playing blues or jazz — they were playing Rachmaninoff and Chopin.
My latest fortuitous event happened during this meeting in that, during the middle of the session, another Chinese person joined the meeting. We became fast friends and talked about everything about music.
How many Chinese people I know sail? (Yes, SAIL A BOAT) Among all the friends, only 3 guys, and 1 girl. Well, this Chinese person I met in the piano group, happened to sail, and in fact, sail in Northwestern, exactly where I had spent the summer windsurfing. Furthermore, after more talking after sailing, I realized that piano and sailing are not the only things that we have in common — he reminds me of somebody I know: my Dad! How many people resemble my father in actions and personality? Far and few between.
So at first I thought, meeting a person who plays piano, and who happens to sail, and who happens to resemble my Dad — meeting such a person in a roomful of African Americans — this must be a fortuitous event.
But as I think about it, I don’t think it is as random as it seems.
When I went to that piano group with the intention of mashing with black musicians, I was behaving what my Dad would have done if he were me. My Dad has a knack of getting himself into situations where he would find himself the only Chinese (and not speaking proper English). It requires a certain, adventurousness or openness to foreigness, to take the initiative and follow through to this meeting. If I were not feeling that passionate urging to learn jazz piano, I also wouldn’t have followed through.
The counterparty of my story — yes, the other person must be sort of like my father to go to that meeting too. Any normal person (especially Chinese, who tend to be reserved about meeting non-Chinese people and super cautious, and even racist) who saw that piano group’s photo album should be expecting themselves to be the only Asian face in the crowd. Furthermore, the person is not discouraged by the amazingly frustrating traffic that night (yes, there was huge traffic). This piano-sailing person I met was late because of the long traffic, came toward the supposed end of the meeting (but the piano playing lasted more than 2 hours beyond the designated end time, with a Greenmills performer (blind) ended up taking the hot seat….) His interest in the subject has to be strong to resist the temptation to turn back.
So, if I were behaving like my Dad, and the other person was behaving like my Dad, it makes sense that these two people who resemble Jones Wong, will cross path…if not there at that particular situation, the encounter will still happen on some other day!
P.S. Let me further hammer the optimistic point of this post into your head: follow your passion and just go at it with ferocity, without reservation or second thoughts (my faith in this mantra had somewhat waivered in the last couple years but now restored). There you are BOUND to meet kindred spirits, sooner or later.
I have not read “The World is Flat” despite the hype around it. It has become something of a must-read for MBA-type class, or for someone picking up a book in the airport bookstore right before a flight. However, I did skim through the book in the airport. I read the content page: flattener #1, flattener #2…okay, that’s it, book closed.
So I did not read the book. Big deal. (I believe my skim gave me enough of an idea about the book) But I read the amazing 58 pages review of the book by Professor Edward Leamer. Three words to describe the review: witty, piercing, and insightful. His review managed to be very critical without sounding arrogant (most economists can do the first part, but not the second) (By the way, this reminds me again how difficult it is to write a good critique….that’s why there exists high paying and respected job with the NY Times Book Review, with the job title “critic”) Let me just say that Leamer is one of a kind of economist. A little detour here: First, he HAS to be great teacher. How do I know? From his former student. Second, from the clarity of his writing. Our profession needs someone who can write as well as him, and who can write clearly (as clear as a journalist, the scarcity of economist like Leamer is the reason why people like Friedman can get away writing books like this).
So the idea of The World is Flat is to push to the extreme the message that locations don’t matter anymore (that’s why the world is flat). Of course Friedman’s message is exaggerated, and the world is still spiky.
My favorite passage from the review:
There are countless real “globalization” questions for economic geography to answer. For example: What if Europe were to form an economic union that allowed the four freedoms among countries: free movement of goods, people, services and capital, all supported by a common currency? Which kinds of activities would concentrate and which would disperse? Do the peripheral countries, like Sweden, benefit or lose out? What happens to a central country, like Switzerland, that doesn’t join? On another continent: Can the economic liberalizations in Sout h America create an export-led prosperity, or are Argentina and Chile and other Latin American countries too far from the large and wealthy European and North American marketplaces for that strategy to work? If closeness matters, how can one account for the historically high per capita GDPs of New Zealand and Australia, and what accounts for the economic successes of far-way countries like Taiwan and Singapore, and now China?
Leamer gave a wonderful exposition of economic geography and how to relate Friedman’s idea to Von Thunen and Krugman. But the thing is, Krugman’s basic model on geography would tell you that the opening to international trade would lead to a dispersion of economic activities inside a nation (and also across countries) — lessening of the core-periphery pattern within a country; in other words, Friedman’s The World is Flat should be on the boat with Krugman’s basic model. In fact, cities in Europe had been moving according to this trend (in Friedman’s liguo — “flattening”) in 1970s and 1980s, and somehow in the 1990s, the core becoming bigger again at the expense of the peripheries. And this increase in the “spikes” of the world have not gone un-noticed. Why? One of the IMF annual report suggested that international trade actually reduces international inequality — but it is the financial globalization that is sharpening international and intra-national inequality. That actually makes sense, since finance and service as an industry operate on a much more scale economy that the good old manufacture industry.
But this is all very unsettling, when we cannot even make unanimous statement on how international trade affect inequality.
Some novels, everytime you read them you feel differently. Austen’s novels read like that. On the surface, it just seems like Victorian chick-flicks. People who read it once will think so. People who read them more them once, and analyze every Austen novel, will think differently. These Austen analysts are an esoteric bunch. I consider myself one of them. I have read Pride and Prejudice at least 15 times (and every other Austen book except Northanger Abbey), and watched almost all existing version of it and some more than 5 times. I can almost complete the sentence when I watch it. Sense and sensibility, to the less degree has I studied.
But PBS has been rebroadcasting Sense and Sensibility since last weekend, so I watch again. The last time I watched sense and sensibility was when I was in high school, and just watched it for the plot and thus, I naturally favored Marianne, since she’s the action in the novel and movie.
Not that I am much older, I am really touched by Eleanor Dashwood. When Edward Harris paid the Dashwood a visit towards the end, and clarified the mistake, Eleanor could not help but break down her cool, understanding demeanor, and finally gave up to tears. At that point, I, for some totally unknown reasons, started break down into tears!
It is just that, given that Marianne, the passionate one, had all the goods news, and finally it’s Eleanor’s turn! She who has given up on the future and adopted that peace!
If Jane Austen’s books are considered chick flick, it sure is 1000% better than Hollywood chick flicks.
The last 2 weeks were series of sport stimulated memories. Before Olympics watching took over my life (I am glued to the TV every night until 1:30am), I had spent several nights satiating my voracious appetite for sailing books. A couple years agp, I randomly picked up a book named “The Godsaken Sea” which documents the 1996/1997 Vendee Global Sailing Race, where one competitor lost his life. Ever since, I have been somewhat obsessed with the Vendee Global. In the last 2 weeks, I followed up with reading Peter Goss’ “Close to the Wind”, and Ellen MacArthur’s “Taking on the World.”
Every 4 years, in this seaside village in France held the Vendee Global– solo (SINGLED HANDED ON A 50-60 boat!), non-stop, unaided, sail across the world. The duration of the race can be from a little over 3 months (the fastest), to 5 months. The rule is that the boat should be AT LEAST a certain distance for land. The sailor cannot dock on the land. Even if the boat is damaged and the sailor need to repair the boat, he/she can only do it on the sea, with his/her creativity.
Itineary: The boats leave France and sail South down Atlantic Ocean, until they reach Cape Horn (The south most tip of South America), they turn toward Anartica, and the rest of the 60 days or so are spent in the Southern Ocean, along Anartica, until they circle around the globe, and return to France via Atlantic Ocean again.
The Southern Ocean is the MONSTER in sea. As wiki says it: “Cyclonic storms travel eastward around the continent and frequently become intense because of the temperature-contrast between ice and open ocean. The ocean-area from about latitude 40 south to the Antarctic Circle has the strongest average winds found anywhere on Earth.”
In the 1996/97 race, such a cyclonic storms occurred while several sailors were sailing in this part of the world.
The boat of Rafael Dinelli, one of the competitor, was damaged so severely during the storm that it sank. Photos showed him standing at the tip of a rapidly submerged boat. He was out there in the Anartica for 3 days, and was going to die in that peace and quietness of Anartica had not PETER GOSS came to the rescue.
Peter Goss was a competitor from UK who was about 160 miles ahead of Dinelli when he received the call to rescue Dinelli. To backtrack 160 miles, he had to AGAIN go through that typhoon occurring in Southern Ocean.
Being the honorable person that he is, Goss turned back.
“Godforsaken Sea” narrates the whole Vendee Global 96/97 race from the point of view of a journalist who is observing from France.
Peter Goss later writes about his experience in “Close to the Wind.” The book is about Goss’s journey to the starting line of Vendee Global, to the finish line. After reading it, one may think that the journey to the starting line could be as hard, if not harder, than finishing the Vendee Global! To get to the starting line, one requires much perseverance to secure sponsorship.
This book is different from Godforsaken Sea in that Peter Goss had a first hand witness of that terrible Southern Ocean storm. He said that waves had hit the height of a 6 story building, at about 80 feet.
I can so imagine it.
I can imagine that the boat would be surfing on the tip of the 80 ft wave, only to crash down to the trough. And Peter Goss would be in the cabin (autopilot on outside), and adrenaline rushing in anticipating of hitting the trough. If he was at the cockpit he’d see that 80 ft tall wave coming in, only hoping that Agua Quorum (The boat’s name) would hang on.
After suriving the storm, Peter Goss probably sighed in relief. Imagine only when he decided he must turn back to rescue Raphael Dinelli, only to go through that storm again!
Vendee Global is truly the pinnacle of human adventure and perseverance.
In the 96/96 race, about 20 something boat set out, only 6 finished the race.
Fast forward 4 years later in the 2000/01 Vendee Global, amazingly 24-year-old Ellen MacArthur finished 2nd! And she is amazingly only 24 years old!
She documents her journey to the starting line and then to the end line in her book “Taking on the World.” Her sailing journey shows that she is an enormously passionate person. Her passion drives her to do great things. But I feel that she had it so much easier than Peter Goss, who really really struggled financially to get to the starting line.
Ellen MacArthur has the state of the art sailing equipments, so her victorious 2nd place finish is less glorious to me than Peter Goss’ 5th place finish — although I am still amazed by her!
(Before reading the book, I was a BIG FAN of Ellen MacArthur, but now my admiration is more qualified because Ellen MacArthur is so….whiny! My heroine cannot be so whiny!)
(Unfortunately, real life indeed does not give good ending to good people. While Peter Goss got the highest level of honor by France and UK, his sailing career sort of died later. He had this ambitious project to build the largest catamaran, spending millions. But the boat was shattered INTO PIECES in a trial race!….millions gone in seconds! Meanwhile, ELlen MacArthur went on to break several world records and became ever more successful)
So where do my memories come in all these sailing races?
When I was 16-year-old, I went on this 2-week long bootcamp-type summer camp in Hong Kong. The program is called “Outward Bound”. Evidently, the HK Jockey Association frequently send their riders to train in this program. I had 2 jockeys in my 9 people team. They were short but really really tough. In this camp, we spent a week camping and hiking across mountains, and another week sailing.
We sailed on a 60-70 feet boat (I forgot exact dimensions) to the South China Sea. The farthest we went was Phillipines.
As I read the part in Peter Goss’s book about the 80 feet waves during his storm, flashes of memories of my time in the South China Sea came back to me.
It was about the 3rd day in the sea. Around the afternoon time, a storm came. The boat was diving into waves after waves. While the waves were not 80 feet tall, I remember it being at least 20-30 feet. The 60 feet boat was dwarfed by these waves. Most of the other people (30 or so) were getting sea sick from the storm and hiding out in the cabin.
But not me — Anna the Amazing– for I grew up by the sea and alway go on boatrides with my Dad. In fact, I took my harness, walked to the bow of the boat (the very front part of the boat– imagine Titanic, the scene where Jack and Rose stood at the bow, except in this case it is with wind, rain, and waves in front of them), and clipped the harness to the rail, and ride the waves! The thrill kicked in particularly when the boat surfed on the top of the wave and got ready to dive down the 30 feet waves!
Anyway, Peter Goss’s ’Close to the Wind’, and Ellen MacArthur’s “Taking on the World” remind me of these moments 10 years ago.
The urgency to take back those adventures in my current life increases. (I added an “Adventure” category” to this blog just for this post, with the incentives to add more adventure in my life in the coming years)
I need to plan my future adventures.
I spent the last entire week resting. In sum I spent 2 days finishing a novel and watched 2 movies in the theatre today. Here are some quick thoughts on them:
1. Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skulls
Harrison Ford still makes my heart beat faster after all these years. This sixty-plus year old man looks even fitter than Mutt (Shia Leotif). The first 1.25 hour of the movie is fast paced, funny, and totally enjoyable. My favorite scene is when Marion Ravenwood (Karen Allen) appears and Harrison Ford asks in shock, “Marion?!”, while Mutt looks on with shock yelling somewhat naively and roughly, “MOTHER!” Marion Ravenwood is the same tom-boyish character and is at her best when she drives up to the branch at the cliff. I thought Shia Leotif was impeccably casted as the son of Indiana Jones, and I can only see him excelling at that role — he possesses that combination of street-smart charm and mamma’s boy quality that no other young character I know possesses. Another great scene is where Cate Blanchett was fencing with him as each stands in their speeding car, as Marion supplies fencing instruction for Mutt. The only disappointing thing about this movie is the revelation of the treasure of the crystal skull. Come on , UFO?! My mind screams LAME when the metallic UFO spaceship spinned its way out of Peru. But overall, it is very entertaining and a fun ride. Though I would always think better of the Last Crusade.
2. Kung Fu Panda
The fact that it is a movie about animals behaving like human beings (i.e. working, owning shops, being in jail) gave me an effy feeling even before watching the movie. Though the lines are funny, overall the movie as an animation disappoints. The plot mirrors that of Mulan — the underdog learns Kung Fu from the master amidst disparagement by others and finally succeeds in defeating the enemy. Yet it lacks the grandeur of the battle scenes in Mulan, it lacks the elements of a hard and long journey of the hero of the story (in this case, the Panda), it even lacks the motive for the bad guy to behave the way he did. Even as a movie intended for children it lacks the basic logic of a story. The panda never has to go through conflicting emotions as Mulan did. How the Panda suddenly acquires the Kung Fu in a mater of 2 or 3 days is really questionable. The only redeeming feature of the movie is the dorky/awkward humor.
3. Pillars of the Earth - by Ken Follet (about 1000 pages)
This historical fiction is written in 1989 but it sits on my bookshelf. I have forgotten when or how I acquired it. But as Maple just read it, I read it as well (I also saw its sequel in Borders).
Gripping is the word to describe the plot of the story. The prose is expected for a bestseller. Each of the major characters are pretty well developed. The 1000 pages depict the long journey of the building of a catedral in a small English town called Kingsbridge, and the lives of the characters involved in building this cathedral. It is a story about how good triumphs over evil.
I wonder what Ken Follet was thinking as he writes this story. Obviously, the story is inspired by his passion for the stories behind the building of cathedrals in England. (whenever a long term project is involved it must involve much politics, blood, and personal struggles). But aside from that, I felt that the story reflects the religious struggle of Follet. A question that any religious person asks during bad time is, “Why is God doing this to me?” Illustrating the stubborn faith in God is highest in the agenda of writing this story. I think the key line of the story occurs as Prior Phillip gave his unconvincing sermon on the Book of Job.
So I started reading the Book of Job yesterday night. I found it very difficult to read. In fact, it’s the hardest part of the Bible I’ve ever encountered. I felt that I really need a priest to guide me through it.
Another immediate reaction I have about the story is the character Aliena. It reads like an exact replica of Scarlett from Gone with the Wind.
The book was written in 2003 by John Rubino, a former financial analyst on Wallstreet. At the time of his writing, he foresaw that in the next few years (2003-2007) we’ll witness a housing booom and then bust. I suspect his call turned out to be a bit early, and then the dollar briefly spat up in 2005. But what I found informative and maybe a bit impressive is that in 2003 he already pointed out the many deficient and shady mortgage lending practices that are indeed the main actors in the current subprime mess. He also pointed out that many house owners are using cash-out finance to support the consumer spending, and that housing equity has been decreasing for a long time while consumer spending has been increasing for a long time, and wages are not rising as fast as national consumption. All in all, he put together quite an accurate prediction (on hindsight).
For investment strategies in bear markets, Rubino recommended short strategies on consumer finance, finance, and mortgage companies. The long stocks to go long are health care and pharmaceuticals. To cover the currency risks, he recommended goldmines and gold and silver.
Here are a list from the further reading section:
BUBBLES, MANIAS, AND FINANCIAL PANICS
At the Crest of the Tidal Wave: A Forecast for the Great Bear Market, Robert R. Prechter Jr. The Elliott Wave perspective on the development of financial crises. Ahead of its time when pblished in the mid-1990s, but spot-on today.
Extradordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, Charles MacKay and Bernard M. Baruch. The classic survey of the great bubbles of the past, including the Dutch tulip mania and the South Sea Bubble.
Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, Charles P. Kindleberger. A more modern and theoretical look at why markets act the way they do.
BEAR MARKET INVESTING
Bear Market Investing Strategies, Harry D. Schultz
Conquer the Crash: You can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression, Robert R. Prechter Jr.
Infectious Greed: How Deceit and Risk Corrupted the Financial Markets, Frank Portnoy.
The Ultimate Safe Money Guide: HowEveryone 50 and Over Can Protect, Save, and Grow Their Money, Martin D. Weiss.
BEAR MARKET WEBSITES
Bear Market Central: www.bearmarketcentral.com
Beartopia: www.beartopia.net/earlybear.html
Prudent Bear: www.prudentbear.com
SafeHaven: www.safehaven.com
CASH
Savings Bonds Direct: www.publicdebt.treas.gov/ols/olshome.htm
www.publicdebt.treas.gov/of/ofbasics.htm
The Safe Money Report: www.safemoneyreport.com
Everbank (Swiss franc accounts): www.everbank.com
THE CONSUMER CREDIT BUBBLE
CardWeb: www.cardweb.com/cardtrak
Loan Performance: ww.loanperformance.com/library.asp
American Bankruptcy Institute: www.abiworld.org
DERIVATIVES (THEIR RISKS)
BIS tracks global derivatives exposure: www.bis.org
Derivatives Study Center, a clearing house for derivatives statistics–including the exposure of individual banks–and regulatory updates. www.financialpolicy.org
US Treasury Derivatives Page: www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/deriv/dq402.pdf
DERIVATIVES (THEIR USES)
Lycos Finance Overview of LEAPS: finance.lycos.com/home/options/education.asp?options=ao1
NASDAQ’s LEAP page: quotes.nasdaq.com/asp/option_index_leaps.asp
Nothing but Options: Funny illustrations and simple explanations to put a beginner at ease.: www.nothingbutoptions.com/education/default.asp
Options Institute The Chicago Board Options Exchange Educational site. Lots of basic information and free tutorials. www.cboe.com/LearnCenter/OptionsInstitute1.asp
Option Tutor: More theoretical, for those who really want to know how these markets work. www.ftsweb.com/options/optut.htm
ECONOMICS STATISTICS
BEA: www.bea.gov
Census Bureau: www.census.gov
BLS: www.bls.gov
Economics Statistics Briefing Room: www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr/international.html
Federal Reserve Board Statistical Releases: Source of the Z.1 Report, the most complete flow of funds analysis available. www.federalreserve.gov/releases
Financial Services Fact Book www.financialservicesfacts.org/financial/
Grandfather Economic Report: Great site. A concerned grandpa presents our financial situation in a series of charts that are mong the scariest things on the Web. mwhodges.home.att.net
National Association of State Budget Officers: www.nasbo.org
THE HOUSING BUBBLE
Housing Bubble: www.housing-bubble.com
Fannie Mae Watch: www.fwatch.org
National Association of Realtors: www.realtor.org
Mortgage Daily: w ww.mortgagedaily.com
Realty Times: www.realtytimes.com
MORTGAGE RATES AND HOME PRICES
Interest.com: www.interest.com/calculators
Domania.com: www.domania.com/index.jsp
Electronic Appraiser: www.electronicappraiser.com
Local Market Monitor: www.localmarketmonitor.com
Mortgage Bankers Association www.mbaa.org
Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) www.ofheo.gov/house
PROPERTY TAXES
National Taxpayers Union: www.ntu.org
Property Tax Online: www.propertytaxax.com
State Tax Notes www.tax.org/tcom/state/stn.html
STOCKS, BONDS, AND MUTUAL FUNDS
ConvertBond.com www.convertbond.com
NASDAQ’s Exchange Traded Funds page: quotes.nasdaq.com/asp/etfsSector.asp
National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts. www.investinreits.com
RealtyStocks: www.inrealty.com
